Random Thoughts

3G Vs WiMAX

Indian telecom operators seem to be poised to take on the next wave of technology popularly known as 3G (third generation of mobile communications). The carrier equipment vendors are in talks with both telecom operators and the government authorities to push in for 3G. The reason is simple, these vendors including Ericsson, Nokia, Nortel and others would be the biggest beneficiaries of 3G roll out since telcos would have to invest in new 3G equipment and networks.

Amidst all the hype over 3G and its launch in India, some experts are raising their eyebrows about the capabilities of 3G and its necessity in the first place. It won’t be too difficult to find industry observers who vouch that 3G has no extra capabilities to offer over 2.5G (the current generation of mobile communication in India). To endorse this, finger is pointed at the 3G networks in other parts of the world including UK, Australia, and Hong Kong.

The biggest and most talked capability of 3G is video call and conferencing. This has so far been a flop show in other parts of the world mentioned above where 3G networks are rolled out. The video beaming is not fast enough and expected speed is not delivered. Further, the huge cost of 3G roll out has compelled telcos in these regions to go for a partial roll outs. Thus, the mobile handsets come with both 2.5G and 3G connectivity and change networks from one technology to another depending upon the subscriber movement.

Interestingly, despite the failure of 3G to deliver its promises it appears that all the interested parties including vendors and mobile operators are pushing for this roll out in India. The reason may not be apparent and needs an understanding of the ever evolving face of telecommunications technology.

The mobile telecom revolution so far has been led by the GSM and CDMA technologies which encompass 2G, 2.5G platforms. All the incumbent telocs have huge investments in either of the platforms. 3G, which boasts of next level of capabilities, is a natural course of evolution for these telcos. However, there is a twist in this otherwise simple technological course.

A serious contender to 3G has been around for several years in the form of WiMAX (worldwide interoperability for microwave access). The proponents of WiMAX claim that this technology has all the capabilities that can be offered right away, while it would require at least another two years for the 3G brigade to do the same.

So, why are telcos not switching to WiMAX? Simply because, WiMAX camp thinks that their technology would make 3G a thing of the past. This means that not only the investments made by telcos so far in 3G would go down the drain but also companies like Research in Motion (RIM) which sell Blackberry would run out of business.

WiMAX allegedly provides seamless internet mobility which means your laptop can do everything that a Palm or Blackberry can do and much more. It would just be a matter of reduced form factor of laptop and deployment of WiMAX enabled peripherals for extinction of the current form of mobile communication.

And, this is what makes the established carriers and vendors uneasy and especially the vendors. After all, they have spent years and loads of money in developing the equipment and infrastructure to get to 3G and now another bunch of vendors is all set to undo all that.

However, there is a way out for the 3G vendors. They cannot stop the charge of the WiMAX brigade but they can still delay it and that’s what they are gunning for. The 3G vendors have laid a technology path for the carriers spanning from 2.5G into 3G and beyond via standards such as HSDPA, HSUPA, HSDA. The ultimate destination is known as long Term Evolution (LTE), which is based on OFDMA, the same platform on which WiMAX is based on. The LTE stage deployment is planned for 2011.

WiMAX can be suppressed if carriers decide to dump it for the path given to them by the vendors. If that happens, which is very likely, WiMAX roll out would run into trouble as there would be no vendors to deploy WiMAX equipment.

The only takers for WiMAX in that case will be the players who have no presence in the current mobile (2G, 2.5G) space. These would be the typical internet service providers who can invest into the WiMAX business.

India is on the brink of the next stage of mobile revolution. It is difficult to predict who will win the race, 3G or WiMAX but one thing is sure, interesting times are ahead.

HSDPA: high speed downlink packet access
HSUPA: high speed uplink packet access
HSPA: high speed packet access
OFDMA: orthogonal frequency division multiple accesss

posted by Ranjit @ 7/05/2008 10:29:00 pm